An Economy on the Verge of Meltdown?
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Kim , New York: Jun 9 2008
Made Popular Jun 9 2008

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At a ridiculous charade called the “St. Petersburg Economic Forum” over the weekend Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Chief Economist Jim “Mr. Bric” O’Neill stunned the host nation by laying Russia low.

O’Neill said: “Oil prices will definitely not do what they’ve done the past 10 years, and that’s not going to be great news for Russia” because it “doesn’t have the same advantages over the next decade’ as China and India, which will benefit from larger workforces and greater productivity. Russia’s gross domestic product will likely grow 3.3 percent a year from 2010 to 2015 and 2.9 percent a year during the following five years.”

It would actually be even worse for Russia if oil prices did continue to rise just as they have over the past decade. If that happened, crude oil would become far to expensive for the market to support, and the market would be obliterated, as would the global economy. But left on it’s own, with no help from world oil prices, the Russian economy is quite simply doomed to failure, because Vladimir Putin has done nothing to reform or improve it. Instead, just like his Soviet ancestors, he’s chosen to devote Russia’s resources to a new cold war with the hated United States, hoping to get it right this time. This was illustrated nicely over the weekend when Sberbank head German Gref stated that “Russia’s lack of infrastructure, high income growth and shortage of skilled labor indicated the economy is already in the process of overheating.” Medvedev’s Economics Minister quickly denounced this statement. And demographics are not the only problem. The Russian workforce has always been far less efficient on a per capita basis than those in the West, and this is due not only to laziness but also to corruption. A senior Russian prosecutor claimed last week that corrupt government officials steal as much as $120 billion from the Russian budget each year. So much for Russian patriotism!

A story in the New York Times about the Forum began: “The lineup told it all about Russia’s importance today. There, on one stage, sat the leaders of BP, Royal Dutch Shell, Chevron, Exxon Mobil, ConocoPhillips, Total, Schlumberger and Dow Chemical, as well as the chairman of the Russian energy giant Gazprom and the president of the Russian oil company Lukoil.” Indeed, it does tell all. And “all” is that Western oil companies have lots of ready cash due to the spike in oil prices, and they’re looking for any means possible to expand capacity — including even plonking some money down in the gambling casino known as the Russian economy. Not one of these views Russia as being a responsible economy or political system. Each one knows, like any casino gambler, that at any moment they can lose their entire investment to any manner of bizarre arbitrary political event. But the simply don’t care. An economy that takes pride in generating investment of this kind is an economy not long for this world.

The Times also reports:

In a speech on Sunday that was keenly awaited by liberals in Russia’s business elite, a first deputy prime minister, Igor Shuvalov, listed the “many hurdles” on this path: an over-reliance on energy exports, a falling population, a lack of modern skills, an unhealthy way of life and a state apparatus with a tendency to meddle. “Russia should be a country that people want to live in,” Mr. Shuvalov said in remarks that seemed uncharacteristically self-deprecating for a top Russian official these days.

Mr. Shuvalov’s audience filled less than half of the hall. It had been packed on Saturday when the new president, Dmitri A. Medvedev, took subtle aim at the United States, suggesting that the world might be in the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression and that a revived Russia could offer solutions to problems that have underscored America’s shortcomings.

So let’s see if I understand. Medvedev, a so-called liberal, uses his first major exposure to the West to attack it. And an actual liberal speaks to half-empty room. That pretty much sums up the value of what we’ve heard from the Russophile collaborators, that Russia now has new leadership we can make progress with, now doesn’t it?

Russia isn’t immune from the business cycle, nor is it immune from the consequences of being governed by a clan of KGB spies with no more idea of economics or how to run a business than of brain surgery. Russians routinely claim that their nation can’t be governed as a democracy, but the example of India proves how ridiculous that claim really is. With nearly ten times as many people and a much more vibrant and diverse socioeconomic landscape, India nonetheless manages to maintain democracy and promote a vibrant economy — even stepping all over Russia in the area of computer science, where Russians supposedly excel. With its massive workforce and willingness to embrace pluralism and hard work, India is on track to rocket past Russia in terms of development and obliterate it as an economic competitor on the world stage.

And yet it is Russia, not India, that sits on the G-8. History will view this outrage — which not only slights India but encourages a crazed regime in Russia to maintain the malignant status quo — as one of the great errors of this century. Republican John McCain is precisely correct to call for Russia’s ouster and replacement by India. One can only hope he prevails in the fall, or that his rival Barack Obama will adopt the same policy.

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2 Stars
Marat
Moscow, Russia
Kim, we openly accept that Russian economy was in peril after the breakup in 1991. Even then we maintained to bounce back to the global stage. However, even US economy is not going with great guns. Recession, Credit crunch, declining mortgage rate... or what not. did you count them at all before assessing Russian economy and the answer is no, bcoz you are always busy in mud slinging. You need to count them and write about that before you write anything about Russia. isn't it???
1 Stars
Matt
Manchester, United Kingdom
Yes, Russian economy is clinging into depression. The local governments sometimes do not pay its workers for months even if they do, they do it by paying its wage arrears through barter. They are running the short of money to pay its employees. It now lets employees go to local stores choose the products they need and deduct them from their salaries. Store owners keep track of what the teachers buy or govt. employees do, checking their names off lists given by the offices. This is the least picture of what Russia is all about. You can imagine what’s going on there.
2 Stars
Marat
Moscow, Russia
Kim you are mistaken to think so. Russia instead is emerging as a global economic giant. Check it here. Daydreaming is bad kim. To all commenters who are afraid of Russian freedoms, let me tell you, I am a Russian and my rights/freedoms were not affected anyway by Putin's rule. It may be a gruesome to you Kim, but it's true. Personal freedoms were not affected. The only thing that he did - he kicked out western puppets out of the politics and western oil companies out of the country. I don't see how this affects my rights/freedoms. And hence you wry everything Russian!!! Or are there any other reason?
1 Stars
Carlsbad
Austin, United States
Marat

I appreciate your patriotism. You love your country the way Kim and I do. But to your bitter taste let me tell you that it’s nothing concerned to Russian economy. Russian is struggling. I even say Kim's words are even too priory and exaggeration, but still she comes out with some dark facts about Russia. Marat, after the violent breakup in 90s, Russia still lacks all of the generally accepted pre-requisites or hallmarks of a properly established market economy or democracy. Russia lacks effective delivery of targeted public spending, establishment of a robust framework of property rights, establishment of the rule of law, implementation of effective tax policy… and the list goes on and on.

Furthermore, Putin has done nothing at all to rein in the local party bosses and canny middle managers, the oligarchs, who exploited their influence during the chaos following the Soviet collapse. Now one may be satisfied with the evidences that Russia doesn’t possess a genuine civil society fit for admission to the highest ranks of the community of nations.
1 Stars
Chintan
Ambala, India
Russia is a bit brusque... has its idiosyncrasies, its faults, but it has massive potential and it is motivated. I do not fear Russia, we were supported by it in the adverse time. With Russia what they want is out in the open, and they do things in the open -- not like another country that starts with a C. Russia should be treated with the respect it deserves.
1 Stars
Sanyog
Chennai, India
I don’t wanna make comparison between two giants of the world. To deny both their due is not fare. I don’t make it out why west and US underestimate Russia. Russia is a force to be reckoned with and to accept it as the world power, instead of counting its pitfalls, would be far better then calling in a vital conflict. That is necessary for the peaceful world.
2 Stars
Michael
Manila, Philippines
Russia has its downsides. Kim is right to some extant that Russian economy is at the verge of destruction. Yes, Russia is going down even when it has massive natural sources to support its economy. To support and manage its economy and to bring it back on the track is certainly not the problem that Russia is face to face with, but the corruption, less population, illegal drugs trafficking and Russian addiction to it destroying the youths as the termite does to wood.

However, US anti-Russia policies, at present, do not make a good sense either – as long as we are concerned with peace and want it to prevail. The colonization of Russia by the West has failed, treating them as equals might produce a better outcome for the West, because Russia is capitalist now and so is China.
1 Stars
James
Sydney, Australia
Russia is back again, no matter how. The fact is it is not down on its knees anymore and now the common sense should prevail soon in the West to put it at the equal footing, unless it wants the bulk of Russia's energy and minerals to flow east in a commodities starved world. Russia and Iran produce more than the half of the oil and natural gas and they both together can make US and west kneel.

Do all the new NATO bases and weapons that are being established on Russia's door step really have a strategic purpose in this day and age? And the answer, undoubtedly, is yes. Russia is right to object it and taking any measure to protect its borders. So kim feeling threats is something like committing a mistake and then trying to defend with fake logics. Put it this way if they are ever used that's the end of the world as we know it.
1 Stars
Muhammad
Islamabad, Pakistan
A group of decadent, greedy, violent and so called western democratic societies have no right to preach how Russia should be governed. They are no one to decide that. I have nothing but admiration for Putin. When he looks to the West what does he see. We should stop trying to interfere in Russia's affairs. Russian view of the world is entirely different than that of the western one and they have a very good reason for that. Why the west and US wants Russia to adopt a democrat that they preach. Russia would turn chaotic if it will adopt western style democracy. Putin carry on, your doing a great job, dont be tempted to become a pathetic western style country.
1 Stars
Nitesh
Chennai, India
Hi chaps!! so great get going!!! well i am against none but to inform you something that is entirely missing here. this is for those analysts who say that most of Russia's economic growth is based solely on natural recourses and that they are far behind in technology. well in this criticism I defy everyone having the same view. well I ask another question: Which country has the most successful space program worldwide? Russians even had a space station a decade ago and now are transporting Americans astronauts up to space. So overall when the Russian people and not only the elite, were in better shape for every aspect of their life?
1 Stars
Shamir
Calgary, Canada
Kim chokes on its usual flood of useless rhetoric and "struggles" with poor information and no good choices on several important fronts. At the same time, usa continues to do nothing of any substantive nature to improve its education, healthcare and public transport systems other than make the same basket of empty promises and worthless commitments... the bitter truth is no longer under wraps: the US is slipping into one of its worst recessions in history with impaired financial markets, an overcommitted Treasury, meaningless domestic policy and conditions of poverty and racial oppression as horrendous as any time in US history. Kim US needs to accept this, before someone write the same against you.
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